Causal reasoning, causal probabilities, and conceptions of causation

old_uid12684
titleCausal reasoning, causal probabilities, and conceptions of causation
start_date2013/06/27
schedule14h30-16h30
onlineno
summaryThe present paper deals with the tools that can be used to represent causation and to reason about it and, specifically, with their diversity. It focuses on so-called “causal probabilities”—that is, probabilities of effects given one of their causes—and critically surveys a recent paper in which Joyce (2010) argues that the values of these probabilities do not depend on one’s conception of causation. I first establish a stronger independence claim: I show that the very definition of causal probabilities is independent of one’s conception of causation. Second, I investigate whether causal probabilities indeed take the same values under their different possible definitions.
responsiblesProust