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New Perspectives on Risk Perception and Choice| old_uid | 17975 |
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| title | New Perspectives on Risk Perception and Choice |
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| start_date | 2019/11/22 |
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| schedule | 11h-12h15 |
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| online | no |
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| location_info | salle S17 |
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| summary | Risk behavior is a widely-studied topic that interests research and practitioners alike. I present new data on risk perception and risk preferences. The first line of work focuses on the risk-return paradox, which is an apparent bias in financial risk perception according to which people believe that returns decrease with risks, which does not match the financial market, in which returns often increase with risk (i.e., variance). In two studies we explain this bias by the semantics of risk. We hypothesized and found that the risk-return paradox is caused by that people understand the term risk to mean loss (not variance). We were able to make the paradox disappear by simply changing the question format. Our data show new avenues for the measurements of subjective risk perceptions. The second experimental work shows that risk preferences is not a stable personality trait, contrary to widely-held scientific beliefs. We used a risk-sensitivity manipulation, where participants were confronted with a requirement they need to reach by accumulating risky resources over time. We hypothesized and found that risk preferences were not stable but shifted such that people take more risks if requirements are high and less risks otherwise. Cognitive modeling of the risky choices reveals that an aspiration-level strategy describes the risky choices very well. Both these results call into question the traditional measurement and conceptions of human risk cognition and provide new avenues for risk research. |
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| responsibles | Le Lec, Laslier |
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